Summary of our thoughts at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2018

TO SUMMARIZE OUR THOUGHTS 6/30/2018 It’s getting later in the cycle, and while the current economic environment is supportive of continued earnings growth, the outlook for businesses has become somewhat clouded. The likelihood of rising inflation, tighter monetary policy, continued stock market volatility, and

Market Performance as of the 2nd quarter 2018

The S&P 500 is entering the second half of the year in a trading range, unable to reach a new high since the correction that began in late January.  While the returns of major U.S. stock indices are up year-to-date, it’s clear we

Summary of our thoughts at the end of the 1st quarter of 2018

TO SUMMARIZE OUR THOUGHTS 3/31/2018 There is an inverse relationship between volatility and liquidity. Volatility decreases when the Fed adds liquidity to the system, and volatility increases when the Fed withdraws liquidity. The Fed has steadily raised rates almost 2%, and has quietly been

Market Performance as of the 1st quarter 2018

As the current bull market turned nine-years old in March, the first quarter snapped a streak of nine consecutive quarters of positive returns for U.S. stocks. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq ended the quarter with -2%, -0.78% and 2.59% returns including dividends, respectively. Market

Summary of our thoughts at the end of the 4th quarter of 2017

TO SUMMARIZE OUR THOUGHTS 12/31/2017 U.S. stocks have been supported by robust earnings, low stock market volatility, quiet inflation, and low long-term bond yields – all in the context of unprecedented central bank policy that has lasted for several years.

Market Performance as of the 4th quarter 2017

In somewhat blithe fashion, stock market returns accelerated through the fourth quarter and U.S. stocks pressed onward to reach all-time highs. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded total returns of 10.92%, 6.63%, and 6.55% respectively to close out the final

Summary of our thoughts at the end of the 3rd quarter of 2017

TO SUMMARIZE OUR THOUGHTS 9/30/2017 Lofty stock market valuations and the duration of the aging bull market are stoking fears of an imminent correction. However, the backdrop for the stock market currently remains constructive. The timing or magnitude of an

Market Performance as of the 3rd quarter 2017

The S&P 500 reached fresh record highs to close the quarter, making it six straight months of increases, and 8 straight quarterly advances (only occurred four other times since its creation in 1928).   Market Measures*       % Change     %

Summary of our thoughts at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2017

TO SUMMARIZE OUR THOUGHTS 6/30/2017 The stock market is vulnerable to unforeseen shocks given stretched valuations. In addition, further advances will be predicated upon continued earnings strength. However, few traditional indicators are warning of a looming bear market, and a

Market Performance as of the 2nd quarter 2017

Without much fanfare, U.S. markets recorded meaningful gains in the second quarter, with the Dow, S&P500, and Nasdaq returning 3.9%, 3.1%, and 4.2% (including dividends) respectively.   Market Measures*     % Change    % Change     % Change